Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot on Thursday exchanged jibes over the red diary that a sacked state minister claims records financial misdeeds of the CM and his colleagues.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
'I'm pitching India for the strengths we offer, including the English language, engineers, doctors, nurses, professionals, innovative talent of startups.'
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath tells Indivjal Dhasmana high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2021 indicate momentum in economic recovery in India.
According to the latest Budget papers, the staff strength of central ministries and departments is estimated to rise by 276,796 to 3.44 million at the end of FY23, it would be up by 109,266 to 3.55 million in March 2024.
Given the various risks to growth, one could argue for rate cuts to be deeper than the 5 per cent terminal repo rate that we are projecting at this stage, says Kaushik Das.
India is poised to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and an engine of global growth despite global headwinds, says leading industrialist and Aditya Birla Group Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla. The economic activity in India has witnessed a sharp recovery to pre-pandemic levels on the back of a rapid and widespread rollout of the vaccination programme, Birla said in the latest annual report of UltraTech Cement Ltd. "A strong digital ecosystem, fiscal and monetary policy and various government schemes helped small and medium enterprises and the worst affected sections of the population to survive while reviving demand and bringing the economy back on track," said Birla while addressing UltraTech's shareholders.
The Union Budget's focus on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment and push the GDP growth rate close to 7 per cent in the next financial year beginning April 1, said a Reserve Bank article on 'State of the Economy'. In 2023-24, capital expenditure is budgeted at Rs 10 lakh crore which will constitute 3.3 per cent of GDP. "We believe that India will decouple from macroeconomic projections of current vintage and also from the rest of the world.
The real requirement for the finance minister's explanatory speech is to explain the measures taken in the Budget to influence inflation and growth not just through the announcement of a deficit goal, but more broadly through the impact on money supply, consumer demand, foreign trade and investment, explains Nitin Desai.
India has undermined its own credibility.
Pakistan was "drowning" in debt and it was the new government's job to "sail this ship ashore," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Wednesday.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of an elevated level of inflation.
'It is not his doing, but Rahul Gandhi is forced by circumstances.' 'In taking political decisions, everything has to get his clearance.'
Party leader Rahul Gandhi dubbed the Union Budget as a 'zero-sum budget', saying it has nothing for the salaried, middle class and the poor.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
GST collection grew by 12 per cent in April to Rs 1.87 lakh crore, the highest monthly mop-up since the rollout of the indirect tax regime. The gross GST revenue collected in the month of April 2023 is Rs 1,87,035 crore of which CGST is Rs 38,440 crore, SGST is Rs 47,412 crore, IGST is Rs 89,158 crore (including Rs 34,972 crore collected on import of goods) and cess is Rs 12,025 crore, the finance ministry said in a statement. The previous high collection of Rs 1.68 lakh crore was in April last year.
According to NCAER quarterly review for 2007-08, the high inflationary expectation stems from surging prices of crude oil and hardening metal prices and high economic growth which it forecast at 8.53 per cent for the current fiscal.
The GDP growth for 2013-14 has been lowered to 5.3%, from 6.4% in April.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainties will lead the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to opt for a status quo at the next week's meeting, Axis Bank's chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said on Monday. Bhattacharya said he had earlier expected a tightening action at the policy meet scheduled for April 6-8 but the increased uncertainties on the geopolitical front due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity prices makes him now think that RBI will defer such an action. He said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hike rates in the second half of FY23 by up to 0.50 per cent.
With their balance sheets under stress, private companies have lost interest in them.
India's exports recorded a flat growth of 0.59 per cent to $31.99 billion in November, even as trade deficit widened to $23.89 billion during the month, according to the data released by the government on Thursday. Exports stood at $31.8 billion in November last year. Imports rose by 5.37 per cent to $55.88 billion in November as compared to $53.03 billion in the corresponding month a year ago, the data showed. During April-November 2022, exports rose by 11 per cent to $295.26 billion as against $265.77 billion in the same month last year.
Improved credit profile may make you eligible to transfer your existing home loan to another lender at a much lower rate.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
Amid prolonged uncertainty, continued policy support will be crucial for sustained economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. "In this period of prolonged uncertainty, it would be wise to remain agile and respond in a gradual, calibrated and well telegraphed manner to the emerging challenges," opined Das, according to the minutes of the MPC meeting released by the Reserve Bank on Thursday. Observing that economic recovery from the pandemic remains incomplete and uneven, he said, "continued support from various policies remains crucial for a sustained recovery." The governor said the renewed surge in international crude oil prices, however, requires close monitoring.
'The cost of financing the fiscal deficit will decrease, as new passive investors join in.'
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) felt that though the Indian economy was resilient in the third wave, it, however, lost some momentum and with inflation likely to soften, there is room to continue with the accommodative stance and support revival, the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Thursday revealed. The six-member MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and continued with the accommodative stance at its meeting on February 10. However, external member Jayanth Verma voted against the stance because he felt a switch to neutral was long overdue and the current stance has become counterproductive and deflects focus away from addressing recessionary trends that date back to at least 2019.
The government expects indirect tax collection to be lower than the Budget Estimate (BE) of Rs 13.38 trillion this fiscal year, despite prospects of netting goods and services tax (GST) in large amounts, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj has said. "Indirect tax collection may see lower realisation than budgeted on account of cuts in excise and customs duties. "We could see a shortfall of about Rs 1.5 trillion on account of those," he told Business Standard.
Battling a sharp surge in inflation, the Reserve Bank is all for a smooth monetary policy response and the desire to have smaller hikes led it to tighten the policy in an off-schedule meet, a source said on Thursday. Inflation has been massively impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and will in due course also reflect the dent caused by Indonesia banning palm oil exports, the source aware of central bank thinking said, indicating that there was no other option but to respond. "The idea is to have a smooth policy response, not to put in large cold turkey responses," the source said, making it clear that the preference is for smaller magnitude responses and not larger ones.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
So, while it is great that India's numbers look relatively good, don't raise a cheer just yet, points out T N Ninan.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting her fifth Budget that may do a tightrope walk between staying fiscally prudent and meeting general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
Pilot said "opportunist" people are ruling at the Centre after taking votes on emotions but they have failed the country on all fronts.
